Bet for fun

The NBA playoffs are finally here, and while the first round isn’t always the most exciting time on the basketball calendar, the parity in the Western conference is much stronger than in the East, and that has provided sports betting fans with what is undoubtedly the most exciting matchup of the opening round on paper. The defending NBA champion Dallas Mavericks overcame the upstart Oklahoma City Thunder in last year’s Western conference finals en route to their NBA title, but will now tip off against them as the underdogs in the first round. The Mavericks still have some of the veteran pedigree that helped them win the title a year ago, but this time around it’s the Thunder with more weapons to lean on, as we take a quick look at the opening round.

// Category Articles // Comments Off

The terms “even odds”, “even money” or simply “evens” (1 to 1, or 2 for 1) imply that the payout will be one unit per unit wagered plus the original stake, that is, ‘double-your-money’. Assuming there is no bookmaker fee or built-in profit margin, the actual probability of winning is 50%. The term “better than even odds” (or “better than evens”) looks at it from the perspective of a gambler rather than a statistician. If the odds are Evens (1–1), and one bets 10 units, one would be returned 20 units, profiting 10 units. If the gamble was paying 4-1 and the event occurred, one would make a profit of 40 units. So, it is “better than evens” from the gambler’s perspective because it pays out more than one-for-one. If an event is more likely to occur than an even chance, then the odds will be “worse than evens”, and the bookmaker will pay out less than one-for-one.

In popular parlance surrounding uncertain events, the expression “better than evens” usually implies a better than (greater than) 50% chance of the event occurring, which is exactly the opposite of the meaning of the expression when used in a gaming context.

The odds are a ratio of probabilities; an odds ratio is a ratio of odds, that is, a ratio of ratios of probabilities. Odds-ratios are often used in analysis of clinical trials. While they have useful mathematical properties, they can produce counter-intuitive results: an event with an 80% probability of occurring is four times more likely to happen than an event with a 20% probability, but the odds are 16 times higher on the less likely event (4–1 against, or 4) than on the more likely one (1–4, or 4–1 on, or 0.25).

The logarithm of the odds is the logit of the probability.

// Category Articles // Comments Off

By adjusting the odds in his favour or by having a point spread, the bookmaker will aim to guarantee a profit by achieving a ‘balanced book’, either by getting an equal number of bets for each outcome, or (when he is offering odds) by getting the amounts wagered on each outcome to reflect the odds. When a large bet comes in, a bookmaker can also try to lay off the risk by buying bets from other bookmakers. The bookmaker does not generally attempt to make money from the bets themselves, but rather profiting from the event regardless of the outcome. Their working methods are similar to that of an actuary, who does a similar balancing of financial outcomes of events for the assurance and insurance industries.

// Category Articles // Comments Off

Novak Djokovic has decided to pull out of the Serbia Open tournament, an ATP World Tour 250 event taking place in Belgrade from April 30 to May 6.

“After consulting with my family, I’ve made a decision not to take part in the tournament this year. I will take some time, try to restore my emotional energy. This is certainly one of the toughest decisions in my career, but it is impossible for me to play in the next few days and to think about tennis, when there are some other things in my head,” Djokovic explained.

Nole will next play at the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 tournament in Madrid. The 24-year-old Belgrade native will enter the event as the defending champion.

// Category Articles // Comments Off

Stuttgart – US Open winner Samantha Stosur will face world No 2 Maria Sharapova in Friday’s quarter-finals at Stuttgart’s WTA tournament after beating defending champion Julia Goerges.

In a repeat of last year’s semi-final, Stosur, 28, was taken to three sets by Germany’s Goerges in Thursday’s second-round clash before the Australian dug deep for a 6-2, 2-6, 6-3 victory at the clay-court tournament.

Wildcard Mona Barthel claimed her second top scalp of the week to also reach the last eight as she knocked out seventh seed Marion Bartoli.

The 21-year-old German, who blasted down 11 aces to out-muscle ex-world number one Ana Ivanovic on Wednesday in straight sets, needed just 71 minutes to beat France’s Bartoli 6-3, 6-1 as she hit a further seven aces.

In Friday’s last eight, Barthel, ranked 35th in the world, will now face either current world No 1 Victoria Azarenka or Germany’s Andrea Petkovic, who meet later on Thursday.

// Category Articles // Comments Off