Wales v England Euro 2012 Betting Odds & Preview – Saturday, March 26th, 2011

2012 European Champions qualifying Group G – Millennium Stadium, Kick Off 3pm. England and Wales come together for the first time since September of 2004, when England came away from Cardiff with a 1-0 win in the World Cup Qualifiers. Most of the headlines for the build up has been about Fabio Capello’s pondering over whether or not to take the captaincy permanently from the injured Rio Ferdinand and hand it back to Chelsea’s John Terry. This has courted all sorts of discussion, as Terry was stripped of the captaincy a year ago surrounding allegations about his personal life. Anyway, that’s all getting beyond the matter at hand, which is there are vital Euro 2012 qualifying points at stake. England drew the favorable group and were expected to go on and win it from the start. After two strong opening wings against Bulgaria and Switzerland, England were halted in their tracks when an efficient and dogged Montenegro showed up at Wembley last October, and held England to a 0-0 draw. That has left England in second place in Qualifying Group G, three points behind Montenegro, but with a game in hand over them. This makes the trip to Cardiff even more vital for England, as they can’t afford realistically to fall any further behind Montenegro. But Wales will equally be eager for points, as they look to start clawing their way back into contention in the group.

England warmed up this year with a 2-1 win over Denmark in Copenhagen, and they will start as favourite against the Welsh. On the team news front, England will go without Theo Walcott for the match, as the Arsenal winger has not fully recovered from an ankle problem. Liverpool boss Kenny Dalglish has urged Fabio Capello to not pick Andy Carroll, who is still finding his way back to full fitness. This echoes all the way back to Carroll’s England debut in a friendly defeat against France last year, where Carroll was carrying an ankle injury. England of course will be without Rio Ferdinand, who has not played since the beginning of February, and Capello will also have to do without Liverpool captain, and England vice captain Steven Gerrard who also misses out through injury, as he sits on the sidelines for a month. Ferdinand’s absence will probably give another chance for Spurs centre half Michael Dawson to step into the void, contesting with Everton’s Phil Jagielka to partner John Terry. Dawson has of course warned the England defenders about the threat which will be posed by his team mate at White Hart Lane, Welsh winger, Gareth Bale, who has the potential to torment the English back line.

Bale, who has recently recovered from injury to get back into the Spurs team, may still be making his way back to full match fitness though, after slowly being reintroduced to action from the substitutes bench. But he is likely to start for Gary Speed’s Wales v England. Also coming back into contention for a place in the Welsh side is Arsenal’s youngster Aaron Ramsey. Ramsey broke his leg against Stoke back in February of last year, but could now turn out for Gary Speed for the first time. You look at Wales and can see Bale and Ramsey as potential match winners for Wales, and that is why they could be called upon as starters. Wales desperately need points in the group, as so the dynamic pair could well be thrown straight into action. Craig Bellamy could also be in line for a start as well after recovering from an injury, and Danny Gabbidon has earned himself a recall to the squad. Wales manager Gary Speed has selected as strong a squad as he could, but will be without Nottingham Forest striker Rob Earnshaw who picked up an injury for his club. However, Earnshaw, along with James Collins have both been named in the squad to face England. The only two new faces in the squad from the Republic of Ireland match, are Joe Allen and Neil Taylor from Swansea.

Wales currently sit bottom of the Euro 2012 qualifying group, without a win in their opening three matches. A defeat in Montenegro was followed by a home defeat by Bulgaria, and then a 4-1 hammering out in Switzerland. It has been a tough baptism of fire for Gary Speed after taking over the national side, who lost his first match in charge this year, as the Welsh were beaten 3-0 by the Republic of Ireland in the Nations Cup last month. The run of results recently for Wales suggest that they have a way to go to really threaten to qualify for Euro 2012, and that is something which England really have to take advantage of. Speed just hopes that his players have learnt from his first game in charge, as they look to earn themselves a famous win against the odds against old foes England. Speed really hasn’t had a lot of time of course to put his own identity on the side after taking over from John Toshack, but time is something which he doesn’t have, as the Welsh go in search of their first win. Finding their way to goal has clearly been a problem for them, with just the one goal in their three Euro 2012 qualifiers so far. That stands in comparison to England’s seven goal in three matches. The Welsh defence has also had a lot of fingers pointing at it, conceding an average of two goals per game. This is the first time now in five and a half years in which Wales have sold out the Millennium Stadium, with all 69,000 seats going for Speed’s first competitive game at home in charge of the side.

Wales v England Head to Head
England have the dominant record against the Welsh, and have won the last four encounters there. That is a 100% win record for England against Wales in competitive matches, away from home. Their most recent victory was a 1-0 win in 2004, and the only thing which has stopped the rot for Wales in the overall head to head, was a 1-1 draw at Wembley in 1973. In the four matches on Welsh soil, England have netted 10 times to Wales’s two. That is an average of 2.50 goals for England away at Wales. The last two matches in Wales have been won 1-0 by England.

Wales v England Last 5 Head to Head
Wales 0, England 1
England 2, Wales 0
England 1, Wales 1
Wales 0, England 1
Wales 1, England 4
Wales v England Betting Odds

No great surprise really that England are the outright favourites to win this match, and early prices at Bwin have them short at 5/11 to win the match, with host nation Wales out at 23/4 to take the victory. A drew is priced at around 2/1 with BetFair at the moment.

Euro 2012 Group G Standings
Montenegro P4 W3 D1 L0 Pts10
England P3 W2 D1 L0 Pts 7
Switzerland P3 W1 D0 L2 Pts 3
Bulgaria P3 W1 D0 L2 Pts 3
Wales P3 W0 D0 L0 Pts 0